How the Signing of Zach Parise Affects Oilers Long-Term Plan

Faced with one of the shallowest free agent markets in years, Zach Parise is picking a great time to become an unrestricted free agent. Teams high and low are salivating at the prospect of signing Captain America – none more so than the fans in Minneapolis (or the owner for that matter).

The organization has made it known that they won’t be out-bid by any team for the hometown superhero’s services, and why not? The Twins signing Joe Mauer to an inflated contract paid off right?! (Sarcasm intended)

For a perennial ppg player and leader on the ice, the Wild have been rumored to have $10 mil per allotted for Mr. Minnesota, paying him more than any other player in the NHL.

So what does this mean for Edmonton?

With three ppg prospects, one more likely on the way (in the form of Nail Yakupov), at $10 million a year, the Oilers would only be able to afford 3 of their kids (at the very most). Under the current salary cap, that equates to almost half of the total cap space and according to my calculations approx 75% of the cap allotted to forwards (under my 60/30/10 cap model).

Ideally, these players could be signed to similar contracts to Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane ($6.5 range), but the market under the Parise contract dictates a significant increase if purely based on points per million.

To be fair though, the [soon to be] former captain of the New Jersey Devils has all the intangibles to build a clubhouse around, especially for a young group like the Minnesota Wild. He’s the type of guy you want on the ice telling prospects like Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle where to be and what to do, but $10 million is a lot of money. For $10 million per, you can have him Minnesota; you’re not wild, you’re crazy.

However, I reserve the right to think that Parise is only getting this money due to his intangibles not his on-ice point totals. Based on purely the 2011-2012 season, Parise was average when compared to other players in the league at 11.5 points per million in salary. The sweet-spot for superstars is ~15 points per million in salary, which means that the pride of Minneapolis should, in reality, be in the $5 million per year range (where he played next to an elite sniper, 12.5 ppm). Some will point out that he led a seemingly average team to the Stanley Cup finals, but paying him double what he’s worth for helping to lead a team through the playoffs is outrageous. It might not be outrageous for a franchise who hasn’t been deep in the playoffs though.

The big 3, by comparison: Eberle was 65 ppm; Hall was 14 ppg, and; Nugent-Hopkins was 14 ppm. If you annualize the points for each of these players and divide it by 15 (as described above), you end up at ~$5.5 for Eberle, ~$5 for Hall, and ~$5 for Nugent-Hopkins. Add in some intangibles like leadership, being a first overall selection, and commitment to the franchise, it’s possible that they could demand upwards of $7-8 million per.

So what does that mean for the Oilers going into the draft?

Maybe, just maybe, drafting Ryan Murray makes more sense long term than drafting Nail Yakupov. As much as we all agree that Yakupov will make a bigger splash in the NHL  immediately, Murray is likely more affordable 3 years from now (assuming he pans out).

If Steve Tambilini is smart, regardless of who is drafted, he should extend Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle over the summer to reasonable long-term contracts through the remaining of their restricted years (something to the tune of 7 yrs / $7 mil per).

What’s further, start the process of committing dollars to your other players who will be a part of the Oilers long-term goals: Smid, Gagner, etc. (for example)

It’s time for management to get serious about the future of the franchise and start identifying and investing  the young players who will be responsible for bringing the Stanley Cup back to the City of Champions before they begin demanding Parise dollars and other teams are willing to out-bid them on an offer-sheet when they are up for restricted free agency.

NHL Draft Rumors – Yakupov, Murray, Schultz, Etc.

It’s that time of year again: Draft time!

Through twitter and some well-placed rumor mills, it’s becoming more apparent that the Edmonton Oilers may be more active in the coming days than what we thought earlier in the week.

Here is the latest Oiler Rumor Roundup:

1. Yakupov is at the top of their draft board.  However, this morning, Stu MacGregor said they narrowed it down to two people, presumably Yakupov and Murray. I’m going to throw out there that either would be great, but my vote is for Yakupov.

2. Edmonton made a call into Columbus about the #2 pick. While not unusual, the price tag could be steep. GM Scott Howson, and the management team in Columbus need to determine whether they’re like the Oilers were two years ago, or whether they still think they need to make a push. The current offer I’ve heard is Paarvi, Omark, and a pick. Some speculation includes Gagner. I wouldn’t read into this too much, as it seems like standard protocol the day before the draft.

3. The rights to Justin Schultz will be sent to Edmonton for either Martin Marincin or Martin Gernat with likely a conditional pick attached. Seems like a high price to pay for someone who could walk in a couple days. Maybe Marincin/Gernat are the conditionals, but that just seems irresponsible.

4. Speculation surrounds Sam Gagner and the Carolina Hurricanes, and their #8 selection. In a twittersation with @THNRyanKennedy, the asking price would be Gagner + pick for #8, which I believe is steep. This is also likely a second option for Carolina, who have their sights set on Jordan Staal.

5. Smyth will be returning, but nothing will be signed today or tomorrow.

6. Ralph Krueger is atop the list for the Head Coaching position, with Todd Nelson coming up to be an Assistant. My vote was for Jon Cooper, but Kruger seems to be a capable and intelligent coach. My concern is when he stepped in for Renney, I didn’t see what I wanted to see (winning).

 

Draft – Who the Oilers Should Take

The NHL Draft (taking place June 22nd) is approaching quickly. There are few things that we know about what Edmonton’s management will do, but what we do know is the Nail Yapukov will be selected first in the NHL Draft. What is under question right now, is whether the Oilers will be the team to select him.

Coming into the final turn, Nail is leading the pack, and not just by a hair or a head, but by a length or two. He’s the stud of the draft this year. While some may questions the NHL scouting report, let’s look at the NHL #1 picks v. #2 picks in the past 7 years:

• 2011 – 1st, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (62 GP, 52 Pts) | 2nd, Gabriel Landeskog (82 GP, 52 Pts)
• 2010 – 1st, Taylor Hall (126 GP, 95 Pts) | 2nd, Tyler Seguin (155 GP, 89 Pts)
• 2009 – 1st, John Tavares (243 GP, 202 Pts) | 2nd, Victor Hedman* (214 GP, 69 Pts)
• 2008 – 1st, Steven Stamkos (325 GP, 329 Pts) | 2nd, Drew Doughty* (316 GP, 162 Pts)
• 2007 – 1st, Patrick Kane (399 GP, 369 Pts) | 2nd, James van Riemsdyk (196 GP, 99 Pts)
• 2006 – 1st, Erik Johnson* (298 GP, 127 Pts) | 2nd, Jordan Staal (431 GP, 248 Pts)
• 2005 – 1st, Sidney Crosby (434 GP, 609 Pts) | 2nd, Bobby Ryan (332 GP, 259 Pts)

Looking above, there is a clear distinction in value between the first pick and the second pick in the draft. Specific to the Oilers situation this year, the 2006, 2008, and 2009 drafts are especially interesting to me. The reason, because the top two picks were either a forward or a defenseman.

In 2006, the St. Louis Blues selected Erik Johnson, the scouting consensus #1 pick, and he has since been traded to the Colorado Avalanche. Jordan Staal was selected second overall by the Pittsburgh Penguins (the year after Sidney Crosby was selected), and subsequently went on to win and lose a Stanley Cup (both v. Detroit). The surprise of this draft was actually, Jonathan Toews, who captained the Chicago Blackhawks to a Stanley Cup two years ago, and has put up the best PPG numbers of the three (361 GP, 324 Pts).

In 2008, Steven Stamkos (also a former Sarnia Sting) was the clear standout entering the NHL draft. The team, the Tampa Bay Lightning, couldn’t pass on the opportunity to draft what has become one of the most prolific goal scorers of our generation. The less-sexy LA Kings selected the second overall pick, Drew Doughty to anchor their defense. Since this draft (and probably more the result of several strategic trades) the LA Kings are on the verge of a Stanley Cup, and the Tampa Bay Lightning had a prolific run last year that took them to the Eastern Conference finals (where they lost to the eventual Stanley Cup Champions in 7 games).

In 2009, the consensus #1 pick, John Tavares, who was expected to be the next Sydney Crosby, was selected by the New York Islanders first overall. With the second pick, having selected Steven Stamkos the year prior, the Tampa Bay Lightning selected Victor Hedman. All things considered John Tavares has strong PPG numbers, and has seemed to settle into a very poorly managed New York Islander team. Victor Hedman has been a solid addition to the Tampa Bay back-end, but is far from an anchor with a declining +/- since his entry into the league.

The point of this analysis is to show that there are stark differences between forwards and defenseman, and between first and second picks. With few exceptions, the first overall pick has had a much better success in the NHL v. the second overall pick. What’s further, the defenseman that were selected first or second overall have not been the dominant defenders that they were in junior hockey.

This does not mean that the Oilers should select Nail Yakupov (though I will discuss that later), it does however quantify what the first overall pick is worth: an elite, game-changing athlete/leader. It’s hard to quantify the value of a package, specifically considering the large talent pool that the Oilers have. If a trade were made, there would be two numbers that I would need to keep in mind: 6, as in $6 million – the target salary that a #1 pick will make after the rookie salary expires (Reference Kane & Toews), and; 1, as in the number of points that the player/package should either provide or prevent. The Oilers shouldn’t be in the business of taking on bad contracts of [albeit] good players in exchange for the #1 pick.

With all that said, I don’t believe that there is a package that any team out there would be willing to provide that would intrigue the Oilers enough to make a trade. So the question shifts from whether they can trade the pick to who they should select.

Recent reports have the Oilers narrowing down the field to 5 players, but let’s be real, it’s between Ryan Murray and Nail Yakupov. Looking back at the examples of prior years, I believe we’re looking at a mirror of the 2006 draft, or a mirror of the 2008 draft. The reason I discounted 2009 is because I will give Oilers management enough credit to believe were in a better position than the New York Islanders.

On one hand, in 2006, the St. Louis Blues chose Johnson because he was the #1 overall pick and fit the needs of the team. Johnson was traded to Colorado where he continues to find his game, but let’s be clear here, this pick was a bust.

On the other hand, in 2008, the Tampa Bay Lightning chose Steven Stamkos because he was the #1 overall pick and fit the needs of the team (similar to Johnson). But, what was different, is that Stamkos was a known commodity: a goal scoring machine. He’s gone on to be a very success in the NHL, winning the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy in 2010 and 2012, for scoring the most goals in the league.

From a pure statistical perspective, I don’t think a team should take a defenseman first overall and history proves that this is the correct move. Rookie defensemen aren’t game-changers, and even though the Oilers just took 2 previous “game-changing” players, they shouldn’t look to the draft to get a game-changing defenseman – save that for a trade or free agency (Justin Schultz, anyone?)

So if the Oilers don’t take Ryan Murray, they will take Nail Yakupov, and what’s not to like — Nail Yakupov beat the Sarnia Sting scoring record (previously set by Steven Stamkos). Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, just like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was said to be the next Wayne Gretzky, Nail Yakupov will likely not be the next Steven Stamkos. But, the prospects are looking good.

Some may ask, ‘How can the Oilers afford to take Nail and keep him for the long-term?’

The answer is pretty simple, forward thinking and planning based on a $70 million cap, and the fact that Nail will hit RFA when Shawn Horcoff’s numbers are taken off the books. Looking backward, $6 is the magic number for signing Nail. He’ll make ~$3.8 million in each of the years between now and then, and Horcoff will be hitting the cap for $5.5. When his contract expires, the Oilers can sign Nail, and likely Horcoff (for a more appropriate cap hit, ~$2 – $2.5 million), and save some cap.

Others may ask, ‘Where does he fit in the Oilers line-up?’

The answer, he plays right wing with a left shot. The Oilers, arguably, have their top two right wingers (Jordan Eberle and Ales Hemsky), right? You’d think that the staff would look to move him to left wing, but instead they should bump Hemsky to play with Horcoff on the third line and pair Nail with Hall and Nugent-Hopkins. The forwards would look something similar to (LW / C / RW):

Line 1 – Smyth / Gagner / Eberle

Line 2 – Hall / Nugent-Hopkins / Yakupov

Line 3 – Paajarvi / Horcoff / Hemsky

Line 4 – Jones / Belanger / Eager

Just a thought…

Let me be clear, I would love if the Oilers could draft a defenseman that could pull them from mediocrity, and I’m not saying Nail will, but when you look at good teams (such as the LA Kings, Pittsburgh Penguins, or Philadelphia Flyers) the thing that makes them dangerous is the fact that they have/had 2 very strong lines of forwards (headed by Gretzky and Messier), an above average line, and an effective checking line.

They also have puck-moving defensemen, and rock-solid goaltending, but those are issues that won’t be solved immediately in the draft – look for a splash in free agency.

-WS